Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  June 14, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
four hours four hours to go until the close and here is where we stand. a nice pot coming through, the rally. the s&p 1324. the stocks to the upside. a meeting on oil in vienna. opec in many senses powerless to affect the price. in many senses a huge amount of power. $83.36 is where we trade at the moment and gold at $1,600. here is what we're following at the top of the halftime show,
12:01 pm
europe on edge. we're breaking down what's expected from this weekend's crucial elections in greece and trading the big winners and losers ahead of the news. emerging opportunities, the markets have taken a beating. a top money manager will join us with his take on where you should be betting for a rebound now. and which stocks are poised to take an earnings hit from the apparently ever strengthening greenback? welcome to "the halftime report." let's get to what the traders are watching this thursday lunch time. >> i'm steve grasso. i'm watching the s&p cash. >> i'm looking at natural gas and whether this rally has legs. >> i'm simon and i'm seeing if gold can creep over its average. >> i'm mike murphy looking to see if we can string together two up days. >> a packed show. the upcoming greek elections
12:02 pm
scheduled to be rerun on sunday. the results could determine whether the eurozone remains intact. let's bring in steve liesman with more on greece and the impact it's having on the european crisis and global markets from beijing to zurich. people taking positions. >> one of the interesting things that i'm watching, simon, is what's happening to the ten-year bund. it's worth looking at what's happened the past several days and overlaying that, the chatter on a wider european plan that's been out there in the market. we've been following it. we've been reporting it in the background. if you notice the creeping up of rates, there's two ways to look at it. you can see that's in the past four or five days. now relative to the ten-year u.s. i guess today is the one day we've had a bit of a spike but in general it's kind of the spread of the ten year to the u.s. treasury.
12:03 pm
it has widened out a bit and that's because of greater expectation. there it is there. greater expectation that is germany may be asked or even may be thinking about a broader role in a you'european wide bailout. fundamentally there is a disagreement between the french and the germans where the frienh are really pushing short-term solutions, ideas of using this esm money for a bailout. theiermans are saying, no, no, no, a series of process that is it will take. it sounds up to years that ultimately could create a big fund in europe. >> the central point that you've repeatedly made here, steve, we have a crisis on our hands. the yields in spain indicate that. >> right, right. >> but we have a divide d political establishment in europe where it would appear no immediate deal moving into italy and spain. >> and you see right now on the screen, simon, the ten-year yields in spain. and i think part of the issue here is that the germans feel
12:04 pm
like they have the tools -- the europeans have the tools that are needed t eed and the tools can afford. they feel there's some $2 trillion firepower behind it and they feel that's sufficient to deal with the short-term issues and at the end of the day, simon, what i'm hearing is the germans think, look, if yields are going to be higher, countries need to prepare for paying those higher yields and more to finance themselves until at least some of the longer term issues are resolved. >> thank you very much for that. obviously we will discuss that throughout the program and how you make money or protect your wealth in this situation. let's hit the chart of the day. credit suisse plunging below its 2009 low at the height of the recession, this after the swiss central bank says it needs a marked increase to protect against a deepening european financial crisis. so is credit suisse the canary in the coal mine? joining us now, doug becker, analyst who spoke today on or to
12:05 pm
credit suisse. welcome to the program. what is your analysis here? >> credit suisse, cat nathe can the coal mine. switzerland is a very small country, two large banks around four or five times the country's gdp. switzerland just wants to be prepared and they can't afford big lowcations after the greek elections next week oregon in the coming months that their banks go under or undercapitalized. i don't think they know anything we don't know. they're just being cautious and want to be prepared. steve, what would you say to american viewers watching now? >> put it this way, you have to be wary of financials. whenever you have to raise cash, raise capital, that's a huge issue for these names.
12:06 pm
i think it's going to spark a lot of people being wary of them point blank across the board because it truly is a risk on trade. so at this point i don't think anyone should be blaming the financials. >> stephanie? >> i wouldn't touch cs, i wouldn't touch ubs but would look at the domestic companies. i would look at certainly some of the regionals. we talked about usb, sun trust. they have little exposurexposur nothing overseas. that's one thing. you have certainly a better housing market and you're getting better loan growth. i still like jpmorgan because it's down so much and expectations are so low. i was pleased with the way it reacted. >> simon? >> stay away from the regional zones, like a wells fargo. this is the daddy-o of the mortgage industry. we're seeing a pickup in the mortgages. i think thatting th going to do well. >> mike murphy? >> this credit suisse news is negative overall. i think that could be one of the
12:07 pm
reasons we're rallying today is things have deteriorated to the point where we do need some sort of easing. we're going to get some more easing and i think that's why you see the markets rallying today. >> i think and you probably will agree with this, it's ahead of the greek election is the huge thing where people worry about that pop, the same way we had the pop out of spain last weekend. we saw the markets rally on a monday morning only to get it back sharply the same day. you have to be cautious on your risk/reward. >> as a european at the heart of the crisis, what would you say to the american investor? >> the european shares, i think it is really difficult. i think ultimately the europeans will get their act together. ultimately they will do things which will save the euro and save the european integration but it will take several quarters, maybe several years.
12:08 pm
it is hard for american investors to get confident about this. >> what happens between now and a grand solution? is there a plan to support the markets? are they going to underwrite wall street and europe? >> i don't think they have a plan. they just do trial and error. the ultimate plan is fiscal and political integration. the other is to cut the debt and this will probably take admittedly several years and they just do what it takes to bridge the gap. at some point the ecb will step in again, they do something but they don't put their cards on the table right now. they do it when it becomes necessary. >> dirk, thank you for joining us. >> i was going to say he's pretty comfortable with their capital position. that to me is the key, right? that's the wild card. we just don't know. so that brings me back to you don't want to be anywhere near
12:09 pm
those banks and you want to focus on the domestic only and where there are pockets of growth. >> if you listen to a lot of people, they talk of an arm get done scenario monday morning. am i safe in the banks we're suggesting here? >> if it's arm get doarmageddont saving everything. you have a potential ruling so you have to get through a couple of things next week that is not so bad to have a little bit of cash on hand to put to work. i would rather chase a little than catch the falling knifes. >> i think germany is not going to let anything happen. i think they'll step in. the battle isn't greece. >> you think angela merkel cares about the stock market? >> what happened to greece which impacts the market, only 25% of their gdp. they want to stop the contagion, it's gone into spain and italy. they are playing strict parent
12:10 pm
right now. >> it's an interesting point. we're talking about it on both desks actually that if any new money they're going to put or allocate or throw back at the crisis, they want it backed in gold. so that's where we saw the divergence where gold wasn't acting like the protection and now we're seeing that come on a little bit. does it continue to? >> i like it right here. >> next trade can the s&p jump to 1419 in the next 75 days? according to s&p capital iq, if you look to past pullbacks and recoveries, are that's exactly where the stocks are headed. that is a big call. >> it's a big call but everyone is watching the 1335 level, the recent highs. a couple days ago we touched on it. we haven't been able to cross over it and every day we touch it, the markets back off aggressively. if we touch on that level, it's
12:11 pm
probably a straight shot to around there. and then we're back to last year's highs of 1370 and, yes, we're back to 1400. >> they're talking about in 75 days. >> hang on one second. what market have you been watching? we were at 12 6. pretty recent time ago. these moves are huge. to say 77 days, you might as well ask us where we will be in seven years. >> mike murphy? >> i'm with steve. the 1325 is a level we bounced off twice and failed at. we get through there, we get 1335 and then if we get positive news, if we get positive news out of greece over the weekend and we take out old ties, i have to be prepared for the market to rally on those -- on that type of news. i think we could see 1400 short te term. >> if that is true, how do you play that? >> cyclicals.
12:12 pm
>> that's why this market is so difficult. so you want to stay u.s. focused, away from credit suisse, anything with you'europ exposure. i don't mind chasing a little bit because the flip side of this is you could have a major downturn. >> you're shaking your head, steph think. >> everyone is playing the u.s. theme. the contrarian call would be to go to the cyclicals, the names that have been beaten down. industrials, energy, materials, that's all those names. >> if you think you're going to get qe -- >> sure. >> tuesday or wednesday. >> i agree with stephanie. you have to have a lot of the cash. >> guys, it's time for the midday market movers that you might not have on your radar this thursday. pop, financial resources, a gainer of 1.6%. steve? >> a piece was put out this morning that a lot of these coal names were undervalued and alpha was basically they mentioned a
12:13 pm
60% down side to a 230% upside so i put a bid on all of them. >> facebook, up 2%. mike murphy? >> i think it might be facebook's first time as a pop on "pops and drops." the stock may have bottomed here. some positive news the company put out on tuesday about research so it could go higher. >> interesting. another pop, super value, 6%. stephanie link? >> there's takeover chatter. it's cheap. you had good news from kroeger today. they have a lot of get and traffic is weak. >> simon baker? >> goldman sachs increasing the buy based on the housing recovery. >> and the pop for blue lobster, after 33 years of lobster fishing, bobby stoddard thought he'd seen it all. that's until he hauled in a rare blue lobster off the coast of
12:14 pm
nova scotia. it has a genetic disorder. it exists in one out of every 2 million lobsters. >> maybe there is a place for the epa, simon, after all. >> bp was drilling there. >> seafood fans would like to shell out big bucks. stoddard is thinking of donating his catch to an aquarium. blue lobster. coming up, the rising dollars is becoming a major drag on some companies giving others a boost. we're trading the winners and losers plus the best way to play a commodity that is surging 9% today. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments.
12:15 pm
the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. our cloud is made of bedrock. concrete. and steel. our cloud is the smartest brains combating the latest security threats. it spans oceans, stretches continents. and is scalable as far as the mind can see. our cloud is the cloud other clouds look up to. welcome to the uppernet. verizon.
12:16 pm
12:17 pm
natural gas futures exploding upwards today. fueled by news of increased domestic storage levels. after dropping more than 20% year to date, does this now, that trade, mark a turnaround for natural gas? steve grasso. >> i would would play it with xco if you think it's going higher. we've seen these ranges before, higher prices than this before. the consensus trade is eventually when, cross your fingers, nat gas will explode to the upside. at this point in time looking at nat gas you would rather be a buyer than a seller. >> you don't sound totally convinced. >> i'm not.
12:18 pm
how could you tell? it is such a volatile space, such an oversupply. you have to be cautious to the down side. >> i think you have to nibble at the stocks there. the ceo recently bought it at $53. >> i think the stock is where the value is right now and southwest energy, i think devin energy, eog, you can pick a name, pick a basket, you have to have a longer time horizon. that's why i started the show by saying this is something i'm watching. it will be key to see if the industrial part of the economy can stay firm. >> to that end the u.s. dollar may be giving up some ground today. so far the green back's performance has been extremely strong with the dollar index up 2%. is this hurting some u.s. stocks? let's bring in peterson,
12:19 pm
director of research strategy for capital iq. welcome to the program. >> in some part of what we've seen the global market and capital, too, is the european situation has already impacted s&p companies and revenues. last year accounted for 14% of revenues as compared to about 29% in 2010. i think what we're seeing based on our examination of management's guidance as vals, consumer discretionary and technology being affected by current yield prices as well as the strength of the dollar. >> mike murphy, do you want to come in here? >> i do. regarding the strong dollar coming up, do you think that has a major impact on the travel stocks because, you know, with the turmoil that's out there, you could make an argument people aren't going to travel as
12:20 pm
much. it should transfer over but do you see it happening? >> in terms of the done performers year to date we have expedia that are probably short term beneficiaries. some of the dollar stores that have no exposure in europe. management at procter & gamble early this year was on record to provide guidance, citing the weak dollar and also the fact you look at the correlation between the dollar whereas the dollar has rallied about 14%. conversely prices have dropped about 20%. year to date the s&p 500. >> simon, just a quick question.
12:21 pm
on the flip side that have with some of the multinationals, 3m came out and said the biggest risk to earnings was going to be commodity prices. with prices going down, trying to identify 3m which will do better with the dollar strengthening. at a loss for words. >> rich, are you still with us hello? hello? earth to rich. earth to rich. >> looking to be the worst performer, a decline that matches the double digit percentage decline. i think as global weakness not only in europe but in asia or the slowdown in those regions has affected stocks, construction stock, caterpillar and others. >> okay, thank you for joining
12:22 pm
us. rip a richard peterson. let's go around the horn and trade it. >> i think the strengthening in the dollar, commodity prices are cheaper. it will do well. >> i like mcdonald's. the stock down 10% year to date. massive underperformer. we know the global markets are weak. they are a cash generating machine. we know that the dollar will hurt them. the numbers are down. >> you weren't concerned with what they said the other day about growth? >> actually not. i was a little bit more relieved. china was slow. that's going to change i think over time with their rate policies. s japan was weak. expectations are low. >> everyone has heard me say it, i love this stock. that's the only reason i own this. >> mike murphy, how would you play the strong dollar? >> i think buying a name we're seeing a lot of fundamental, positive news on is target.
12:23 pm
the stronger dollar will trickle down. it's had a nice run. >> thank you very much. coming up on "the halftime report" a beaten down tech stock value plays or value traps? our traders make the call. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain
12:24 pm
so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier. celebrex can be taken with or without food. and it's not a narcotic. you and your doctor should balance the benefits with the risks. all prescription nsaids, like celebrex, ibuprofen, naproxen, and meloxicam have the same cardiovascular warning. they all may increase the chance of heart attack or stroke, which can lead to death. this chance increases if you have heart disease or risk factors such as high blood pressure or when nsaids are taken for long periods. nsaids, including celebrex, increase the chance of serious skin or allergic reactions or stomach and intestine problems, such as bleeding and ulcers, which can occur without warning and may cause death. patients also taking aspirin and the elderly are at increased risk for stomach bleeding and ulcers. do not take celebrex if you've had an asthma attack, hives, or other allergies to aspirin, nsaids or sulfonamides.
12:25 pm
get help right away if you have swelling of the face or throat, or trouble breathing. tell your doctor your medical history and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. visit and ask your doctor about celebrex. the hyundai genesis. in a new, faster-acting formula. s tio-y siin lxtes zemethan a porsche panamera s. the 429 horsepower genesis r-spec. from hyundai.
12:26 pm
welcome back. here are welcome back. here are today's top three trades. nokia to cut 10,000 jobs globally and close plants by the end of next year in an effort to save costs and streamline its operations. this is, i think, stephanie, the second profit warning in nine weeks. >> it is really a tragedy. you know, it's kind of interesting that it's cheap, i think, but it's a show-me story. another restructuring and now they're cutting r&d and cutting distribution which was actually in the past their strength. i can buy apple for ten times earnings and it's predictable and a much better company. >> expedia downgraded to neutral from buy. after it ran up 46% since it reported earnings on april 26th. mike, do you like expedia or are you a seller?
12:27 pm
>> i like the stock. laz laz laz lazard took the numbers down. it hasn't reacted negatively to the news. there's almost 25% short interest. i think you'll see some shorts and the stock with continue to move. >> and on the subject of the strong dollar, gold still above $1,600 an ounce. simon? >> we like gold. it's been trading down for nine months. 15-week moving average. we like the stock. i think you can own it here for a trade. >> even if the dollar keeps strengthening because of concerns about safety, that's disastrous, isn't it? >> you might say that. the strengthening of the dollar at the same time. my correlation is old news. >> our call of the day. goldman sachs wanting investors
12:28 pm
to be cautious. the i.t. hardware sector in particular. goldman calling the hardware sector a prime breeding ground for value traps. interestingly they were talking about this in the break, this is something, stephanie, what do you think of this stock? >> i think it's a little late. these stocks are down a lot. there's a difference between the high-quality companies that have growth that are in secular growth markets, like an emc, a data storage cloud. that is a very good secular theme in technology. ibm. fine, i'll take the numbers hit. i don't think they're lowering numbers that much. on the flip side, i wouldn't touch a dell or xerox. they have structural issues. >> you made the point about apple before. >> sure, absolutely. i think apple is a great store and it's down 11%. it's trading at ten times earnings. we all know the story. take advantage of the decline.
12:29 pm
>> what about the call from goldmans you have traps across technology? >> agree with stephanie. this is a late call. dell has been broken for some time. they tried to rescue with a dividend. a xerox hasn't been working. apple is still cheap, can still be bought. that's the way i would play it. i think low 30s quickly on emc. >> i disagree. i think it's more like hp has a better chance than an apple does. the smart money like david icon. >> what about the down side? >> i think down side is in it for me. anytime you buy the stocks, you have to put a stop loss. you put a stop loss down 10%, 1 15%. i think they're tradeable right here. and i do it alongside what stephanie is doing and the risk up on the cyclicals.
12:30 pm
the down side the value names. >> make it a clear cut decision here. hit up on the screen all those names that we just discussed. look at price action in those names. price is truth. my good friend likes to say that statement. it looks like a very late call judging on price action. if it was early, you'd see a lot of names just being cratered into it. >> i know price is truth and i totally agree with you but i think that's where your opportunity is. again, back to the companies that have the secular growth. >> no, no, no. i was agreeing with you. if you argue with me, you're arguing with yourself. >> you never agree with me. >> even an amazon, amazon is my every day play. a little bit afraid that have price action where you could see it be drawn back into the $200 mark. i don't think so. i think it has proven itself. >> emc is down 20%. so that's not something that would look good to you on a chart basis, and so i think that looks good to me on a value basis. >> so then we don't agree. >> we don't agree. >> as we head to the break the
12:31 pm
s&p near session highs this thursday lunch time. consumer discretionary, health care and energy leading the way higher. coming up, one of the hottest ways to play emerging markets and actually it's not stocks. journey across america, i found new ways to tell people about saving money. this is bobby. say hello bobby. hello bobby. do you know you could save hundreds on car insurance over the phone, online or at your local geico office? tell us bobby, what would you do with all those savings? hire a better ventriloquist. your lips are moving. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements.
12:32 pm
♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪
12:33 pm
12:34 pm
fertilizer prices have bottomed or are firming up. i would look for higher prices. still above most of its moving averages. >> that was steve dwgrasso. shares are down 18% since he said had a. are you still in cfc? >> i'm not. and here is the thing. and i've said this before. if you see a name go against you, you have to decide your own risk tolerance. for this you want to cut a high flyer like this a lot quicker. let's get back to the actual story here. how do we open up the show today? now that becomes a headwind to them. it was announced they have more capacity even though it's not coming on 0 until 2017, could cause a couple of hiccups here.
12:35 pm
i'd wait until it confirms above that level. >> that's a big move. look at that now. okay, spanish bond yields soaring to area highs this morning as investors weigh the potential outcomes from this weekend's rerun of the greek election. let's bring in mike cornelius who has three emerging market mutual funds at it t. rowe price. you've actually got a new fund, a new ro duct, the emerging markets corporate bond fund. why the need for this? >> we think the u.s. investors and investors globally are still underallocated to the emerging market within their fixed income portfolio. we've always had the sovereign product, the bond fund, and we do invest in corporate bond and that portfolio up to 30% currently but just to get more of a focused exposure into emerging companies we thought the need was there for the long term. the more 0 exciting part of the opportunity as we see it today. >> yeah, the difficulty -- maybe
12:36 pm
a great instrument. it may be a really interesting product, but what is the environment in which you're launching it with the emerging market etf if i can use a proxy down 18% over the last 12 months. and if we have difficulty within banking in europe, surely they're going to withdraw from the emerging markets with potentially an accelerated effect on your new product. >> you're referencing an emerging portfolio. >> sure. >> and that's, again, sort of a dollar denominated as opposed to currency denominated. if you're up the capital structure in what are very good companies, underleveraged companies, in those that are underrated, we think, and so it's a more defensive way of playing the same companies that we do like on the equity side. >> have you back tested it? how have you done in this new instrument? >> all emerging markets whether it's currencies or corporate we are residual asset class and that will never really change so
12:37 pm
in a risk on/off environment, you will underperform in periods of risk off. that's the world that we're in. and until europe gets a handle on their crisis, we'll remain in that world. >> mike murphy? >> i wanted to get your views on india. a lot of talk they're going to be down graded to junk status. what are your thoughts on what you're looking at as far as the debt market goes? >> the one thing we have is the effect of europe is a significant in syndicated loans from banks. india is heavily exposed to that. we're very light in india at the moment. >> simon? >> i think someone scored in the championships. there's a big cheer down on the floor. the quick question, though, an article in the wall street journal saying the banks are money managers, going to set up a new exchange. you made the comment the retail invest
12:38 pm
investor is not really fully allocated over that. do you think that will move on and will help? >> i'm not sure about exchange traded funds in general, the one strike against emerging corporates is they're less liquid markets so etfs will only really get you exposure to the largest most liquid companies and really that's a small slice of the overall opportunities. >> and just one more question, mike, simon asked you how it performed the last 12 months. what is the actual number? you skipped it. was it down 18%, 16%? >> we're up on a 12-month basis. you're referencing an equity produ product. they are almost entirely dollar denominated. >> can you give us a couple of names, you like the beef and the poultry segment. can you give us a couple of names? >> yeah. it goes on to the theme of the consumer and a growing middle class. you were talking mcdonald's earlier. we have the latin american franchise for mcdonald's. beef and protein consumption will go up as wealth goes up.
12:39 pm
brazil foods in brazil. >> mike, good luck with the new product. thank you very much. let's go around the horn and trade this. mike murphy, what's your view here? >> i think that you have a lot of opportunity in the emerging markets, but right now i would stay away from them. there's too much uncertainty out there. again, i'm back to the u.s. right now. i think it's a safe haven. i think it's the safest way to make money and some u.s.-focused companies are the home build er. we've been long the home builders in our fund and we continue to move higher. >> steve grasso? >> i invest like a 60-year-old man here. i'm investing in dividend plays. as mike said, i'd rather be bringing it home, keeping it here, keep a portion of it in cash as well so i wouldn't be in the emerging markets. >> i think you want to be careful, right? we have a bar bell approach but we have some defensive stocks and cyclicals f. you're looking at emerging markets, i like the chinese market and the consume
12:40 pm
earp in the chinese market. that's one of the reasons we like mcdonald's or yum or coach or honeywell where dave cody yesterday on your show said that china wasn't as bad as expected? >> moving into the greek elections, it will do very well if we have good news. the euro trending higher today despite the overall extreme short position in the currency in the light of all that european uncertainty. our next guest is looking at a trade based instead on stability. let's welcome camilla sutton of scotiabank, a trade from down under. welcome to the program. what is the trade? >> we are looking at a long australian play. what we've seen is the risk aversion move seems to be kind of running out of steam. risk aversion can be violent and we're seeing it really settle down, so lots of stability. we have news out of china the last few weeks that growth there seems to have stabilized. i think when we look at the fed next week, it's tough to be long
12:41 pm
dollar into that combined with the weekend risk and lots of rumors in the market that's going to be positive for euro. when we all those those together, it leads us to 0 it's likely time to put risk back in the portfolio so things like long aussie entering close to where we are now, looking for it up to 102.20. not a lot of risk on people's books. >> interesting. you would pursue that in the wake of the greek elections on sunday? >> we have some short coverings on that today. rumors from the exit polls so far that it might prove favorable for europe -- or for euro. and i think really what we have is the biggest risk we have right now are the global growth outlook combined with what central banks are going to do and we saw banks really step in and remove the tail risk and we saw the risk rally though there
12:42 pm
is tremendousries nk europe. >> camilla, the only thing is i had a very interesting note out today in which they were talking about the asymmetry of what happens on the euro on monday. so if we get a good result, in other words greece does what the rest of europe wants, yes, you could get a euro bounce but for how long? greece isn't sorted and nor is the rest of europe. if, however, you get a rejection by the greek people of what's on the table, that becomes a lot of -- that's going to be a lot of howling. and the potential down side, according to standard chartered on the euro is huge. >> the fact we're sitting here at 126 almost doesn't make sense. the average since its inception is way down. the truth of the matter is it has resiliency and that's one of the big things that comes out this year, even though the
12:43 pm
binary risk is real for europe, it's either/or, that i'm not sure the market is really prepared to short more than they have shorted. >> okay, camilla sutton from scotiabank there. mike, how would you trade 24? >> i still like the long dollar theme, simon. i'm going to stick with that. i'm a buyer of the dollar here. and, also, looking at if we do get an announcement from bernanke and the fed tuesday or wednesday, i'm not so sure it actually hits the dollar. i think the dollar may still show some strength there. i think it can be long the dollar here. >> mike, how on earth -- you mentioned level 1325. i'm looking at the level right around here as well. but how on earth can we see an announcement as long as we stay north of 1300 in the s&p cash? it's more of an idea versus a reality and they keep it -- there's a carrot on the stick. that's why i like the dollar trade. >> i like it, too. i think you've seen so much deterioration out there. you're going to have to get some sort of an announcement. i, for one, would hope we wouldn't get it. what the market is telling you now it could be the carrot on
12:44 pm
the stick as they did in 2010. you are going to see some sort of an announcement. i think something comes next week on the 20th. >> why wouldn't it? if the fed comes out and does something and does something none of us -- maybe it's more than what we expect, why wouldn't that hit the dollar? >> i think, stephanie, it's similar to what's going on right now with the euro. in trying to explain that, it's just what the market is telling you. i'm not saying it definitely will hold up. it could actually hold up in the face of another qe. >> coming up on the halftime report, is opec putting a bottom on the price of oil? we're making a pit stop for the trade.
12:45 pm
12:46 pm
12:47 pm
we go live to athens where a demonstration happening now could be a preview of action this weekend. some new foreclosure numbers show a spike, but we'll tell you why some say the plans to help fix housing may actually make it worse. and airlines are getting better grades but does that make them right for your portfolio? we'll see you on "power." now back to "fast half. ". >> looking forward to it, sue. a nice bid coming under oil. crude hit session highs on reports opec ministers have agreed to keep oil production
12:48 pm
limits unchanged. joining us now with the energy trade is the managing partner at kielberg capital and a cnbc contributor. welcome to the program. what's your trade here? >> simon, we did see that unchanged statement out of opec. i think the range that we are stuck in in the middle from 81 to 87 we are seeing the global market sentiment outweigh the potential geopolitical tension. one thing traders have to consider is that there is a large inventory. last month was the largest inventory in crude since 1990. therefore, there is something coming down the pipeline, pun intended. therefore, i think you can grab crude here via the uso, the etf long oil, because prices seem to be skewed to the upside in the event of geopolitical attention or the large rescue package out of germany for the eu crisis. >> and here are a couple of
12:49 pm
thin things. the quota is leaving them the same. no one abides by the quotas anyway. that's a nonissue. but the other issue you are talking about, geopolitical issu issues, this embargo on iran, right -- >> right. >> i don't think you're going to see it. we've seen seven countries just go about their own way, right? so why would that be the catalyst it at this point? >> well, to take the other side, grasso, you've seen huge movement out of washington. talk to the saudis to convince them to up their production months ago. therefore, they are getting out in front of something. there's a huge inventory here due to the fact they're embracing for some type of hiccup down the road but they cannot afford to have that supply disruption. that's why we are seeing the massive amounts of supplies in the oil. >> one more thing, the u.s. government has a vested interest in keeping oil prices low for the american people. we're running into an election year right now. we're in an election year psycy. so i would be careful with buying crude based on an upset. you could have a headline risk where you could see crude pop but the u.s. government has a
12:50 pm
vested interest. this is a huge tail wind. >> are you with donald trump, obama, and obama has done a deal with the saudis to keep the price of oil low and after the election, bang? >> no. what is the crude embargo event >> with iran. >> yes. on iran. so now if you're looking at that being an issue, there's already countries not abiding by it. forget about the meeting with the saudis. is there a push to say to the other countries please abide by the embargo? i'm not a huge conspiracy guy. it's a tail wind to the american people. we have a vested interest to keep -- >> you're right. for sure. this is the best stimulus we have seen. gas prices at the pump come down. for the american consumer, it's phenomenal. think about the people selling the oil. there's people talking to the saudis about this from venezuela to algeria. they want the price at $100. i'm not saying it's good for the economy but one thing you're not considering is an attack on iran. due to the nuclear situation.
12:51 pm
not just the embargo. what part in the event of an attack on iran? that sends oil way back over $100. >> for sure. what is your trade here, mike murphy? >> killer, when's up, buddy? >> hey. >> looking at the oil level from right here, it looks to be a little oversold to me and could rally and i think the trade is in nat gas. do you see anything that shows it could be through the $3 mark and so many people feel is so important? >> well, that -- we see a huge move today above 11%. if you want to play an nat gas move, keep in consideration one year ago it was 100% higher at $5 and grasso talked about the xco earlier in the show. i like anna darko. they had a huge discovery. 300-feet meter discovery in mozambique. >> thank you very much. coming up, the chatter on twitter could be money in your
12:52 pm
pocket. what's trading -- we're trading what's trending next. support team usa and show our olympic spirit right in our own backyard. so we combined our citi thankyou points to make it happen. tom chipped in 10,000 points. karen kicked in 20,000. and by pooling more thankyou points from folks all over town, we were able to watch team usa... [ cheering ] in true london fashion. [ male announcer ] now citi thankyou visa card holders can combine the thankyou points they've earned and get even greater rewards. ♪ and get even greater rewards. at merrill lynch, we understand the importance of your goals. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch.
12:53 pm
12:54 pm
okay. okay. let's take a look at the stocks talked about most on the social stratosphere and use it to your trading advantage. sema modi is with us for more. what can you see? >> let's get to the stock heat map. the bigger the box, the bigger the chatter on twitter. technology grabbing the headlines as it always does.
12:55 pm
a lot of speculation around microsoft and if the company is looking to buy a bb2b firm. shares of jive are up sharply today, jumping nearly 10%. if microsoft is willing to pay for yammer, jive with a similar business model is worth more so and simon, how do you trade the basket of tech stocks? >> thanks. let's ask for that. open ended question, mike. >> yes. exactly, simon. you look at it. there's been a lot of deal making in the social media space and one way to trade this is rather than guess who's next is realizing that this is a space that's going to be -- >> mike, i have to interrupt you. forgive us. we have breaking news. eamon javers joins us. >> the house committee holding a
12:56 pm
hearing focusing in on market structure and some of the biggest players involved and around the facebook debacle will be up on capitol hill. this is not a hearing that was scheduled to focus in on facebook but naturally these questions will come up. it's a two-panel hearing. we are going to see thomas joyce of night capital. we're going to see duncan niederhauer and direct edge representatives, in vesco, the security traders association and capital markets advisory partners. all testifying on capitol hill about market structure and obviously given what we saw with facebook and the problems with the nasdaq ipo there, you can imagine all of this will be dived in to, simon. >> i don't -- i didn't hear you list the nasdaq ceo. >> as far as i can tell the nasdaq ceo will not be a part of this hearing according to the information i'm getting right now, simon. that's an interesting omission
12:57 pm
here. >> okay. we have to take a break. thank you very much for that breaking news from washington on the facebook debacle. let's take a break. this is $100,000.
12:58 pm
we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense.
12:59 pm
on december 21st polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space. which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd, and you still need to retire. td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). forty-five states have joined together... ensure consistent academic standards across america. these internationally recognized benchmarks... ...are unlocking a better way to prepare our children for college and their careers. because when our kids do better... ...america does better. let's reach higher. let's invest in our teachers and inspire our students.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on